Jackson Prices Fell 13.2%. Its Rental Nets -$180 or +$253

You have somewhere between $35,000 and $55,000 for a down payment and one headline you can't ignore: Mississippi's capital sold homes at a median $139,907 in the three months ending August, 13.2% below a year earlier (Redfin). A 13% drop looks like a bargain, and an investor's instinct is to run to it. Then you run the monthly math at today's mortgage rate and the answer swings from a $180 monthly loss to a $253 monthly gain, depending on one input you can check in an afternoon: the rent.

This is our third pass on Mississippi, after the June 12 first pass and the August 5 second pass. The benchmark 30-year rate went from 6.66% on July 30 to 7.40% on October 8, 2026, the seventh straight weekly rise (Freddie Mac). I underwrote Jackson, Gulfport and Hattiesburg with 25% down, an 8% management fee, one month of vacancy a year and a 1.5% annual maintenance reserve, the same method as our Minnesota and Michigan updates. The August pass had no reserve, so compare it only with the bridge below.

Four inputs are estimates, not published figures, and I flag each where it matters: the rental property-tax rate (county effective rates times Mississippi's 1.5 assessment multiple), insurance (NerdWallet's city premiums scaled down to each home's price), Hattiesburg's insurance (the state average, because the city isn't listed), and Gulfport's price, which Redfin last updated for the three months ending June.

Three markets, three directions

Jackson's median is $139,907, down 13.2% from a year earlier, on 332 sales (up 10.0%) with a median 47 days on market (15 more than a year ago) and homes selling at 93.6% of list (Redfin, three months ending August 2026). Gulfport's median is $216,382, up 11.0%, with 61 days on market (up 23) at 97.0% of list (Redfin, three months ending June 2026). Hattiesburg's is $219,755, up 9.3%, with 101 sales (down 5.2%), 27 days on market and 97.2% of list (Redfin, three months ending August 2026).

The median reflects the mix of homes that sold as much as same-house appreciation, so treat these as direction, not precision. Still, the implied gaps are large.

Jackson buyers a year ago sit on a paper loss of about $21,300, or $1,773 a month, against a cash-flow figure of -$180. Gulfport's and Hattiesburg's price gains of roughly $1,787 and $1,558 a month dwarf their cash losses of $620 and $584. For an investor, that means cash flow and price momentum point opposite ways in this state, and which one matters depends on whether you can carry a loss for the exit.

What it means for you: do not read a falling median as a reason to buy, and do not read a rising one as a reason to skip; model the monthly cost first, then decide how much price risk you are willing to hold.

The monthly numbers

Jackson is the only one of the three where rent covers the loan, tax and insurance payment (1.19 times), and it still loses $180 a month once management, vacancy and the repair reserve come out. Gulfport (0.94) and Hattiesburg (0.96) fall below 1.0 before those costs, which is where many DSCR lenders (lenders that qualify a loan on the rent) draw their line.

What it means for you: Jackson passes a lender's rent test but not an owner's cash test, so a DSCR approval alone doesn't tell you the deal makes money.

Jackson: the rent source decides the sign

Zillow Rental Manager puts the average Jackson rent at $1,195, down $5 from a year earlier, as of October 10, 2026, but that figure covers all property types, including apartments. Rentometer's reading for 3-bedroom houses is $1,712 as of April 2, 2026. The $517 gap changes the answer.

At $1,195, you need rent of $1,410 or a price of $115,852 to break even. At $1,712, the same house clears with $253 to spare and could absorb a price up to $173,678. The honest read is that the sign of Jackson's cash flow depends on whether the house you buy actually rents for the house figure. Pull three leases or active listings on the same street before you offer, because that single number is worth more than the rate.

The tax line is the second swing factor. Hinds County's effective rate from our earlier passes is 0.83%, and I applied 1.5 times that to a rental (1.245%) for the base case. But the City of Jackson's 2026-27 millage is 63.03 mills, unchanged, and on a $200,000 home that works out to $1,890.90 a year in city tax alone at the rental assessment ratio, before county and school levies (WLBT, September 3, 2026). The Property Tax Almanac lists roughly 158 mills combined for a representative district near Jackson, which at the 15% ratio would be about 2.37% of value. I didn't use that for the base case because the same page's own figures don't reconcile, but as a stress test it costs $131 more a month: Jackson drops to -$311 at the $1,195 rent and falls to +$121 at the $1,712 rent. Call the Hinds County Tax Assessor and ask for the millage on a specific address.

What it means for you: Jackson is a rent-verification deal. If a lease comp shows $1,700 or better, the numbers work even with a tax stress; if it shows closer to $1,200, you're buying a loss.

Mississippi's 15% rental assessment

Mississippi assesses owner-occupied single-family homes (Class I) at 10% of true value and most other real property, including rentals (Class II), at 15% (Mississippi State University Extension). At the same millage rate, an investor's assessed value and tax bill are 50% higher than the owner-occupant's next door. On the county effective rates from our earlier passes (Hinds 0.83%, Harrison 0.65%, Forrest 0.78%), that adds roughly $48 a month in Jackson, $59 in Gulfport and $71 in Hattiesburg. Those effective rates describe owner-occupied homes, so a listing's tax history will understate your bill.

The state income tax is the one friendly number: the rate is 4% for 2026 under House Bill 1 and is scheduled to fall in 0.25-point steps toward 3% by 2030 (Mississippi Department of Revenue, 2025 law). That helps a profitable rental, and none of these is profitable at 7.40% except Jackson at the house rent.

What it means for you: add the 15% ratio to every Mississippi underwriting sheet and ignore the seller's tax number; it is a homeowner's bill.

Gulfport and the wind-pool premium

NerdWallet's March 18, 2026 data puts the average Mississippi homeowners premium at $4,445 a year and Jackson at $4,570, against $7,920 for Gulfport, all for $400,000 of dwelling coverage. I scaled those rates to each home's price: about $1,598 a year for Jackson, $4,284 for Gulfport and $2,442 for Hattiesburg (state average). Scaling is an approximation; a real quote for a landlord policy (DP-3) on a specific house will differ, and Gulfport's will likely run higher than a small-house scale-down suggests because wind coverage is the main driver.

The state wind pool raised coastal rates 16% on January 1, 2026, and Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney has said the state has spent more than $400 million since 2005 on reinsurance that subsidizes Gulf Coast premiums (Insurance Business, August 4, 2025). A state program passed in 2026 funds up to $10,000 per home in wind mitigation, but it isn't reflected in quoted premiums yet.

What it means for you: on the coast, get the insurance quote before the offer; at $357 a month it is the second-largest line after the loan.

What changed since August

Here is the approximate bridge from the August 5 pass to today, applying the rate and reserve effects to today's loan sizes.

The rate jump from 6.66% to 7.40% costs $52 to $82 a month; the reserve costs $175 to $275. Jackson improved on other inputs ($175) because its price fell and I now use a higher rent. Hattiesburg's other inputs barely moved ($17). So the August deals looked better mostly because they skipped the repair reserve, not because the market got worse that fast.

What it means for you: when you see an older Mississippi deal that cleared, recompute it with a 1.5% reserve and today's rate before trusting it.

What would make Mississippi rentals work

At 7.40% with today's costs, break-even prices are $115,852 in Jackson (17% below the median at the $1,195 rent), $130,916 in Gulfport (39% below) and $140,963 in Hattiesburg (36% below). Break-even rents are $1,410, $2,303 and $2,192, which is 18%, 47% and 47% above the rents used. Neither a modest rate drop nor a few percent of rent growth closes gaps that size; a lower price does. With Jackson's days on market up 15 days and homes selling 6.4% below list, offers near break-even are not unreasonable there. In Gulfport and Hattiesburg, sit on a pre-approval and let a motivated seller come to you.

Frequently asked questions

Is Mississippi good for rental property cash flow in 2026?

Mostly not at 7.40%. Gulfport loses about $620 a month and Hattiesburg $584 with 25% down. Jackson loses $180 at a $1,195 rent and gains $253 at a $1,712 house rent, so verify the rent before you offer.

How much higher is Mississippi property tax on a rental?

Rentals are assessed at 15% of value against 10% for owner-occupied homes, so the bill is 50% higher at the same millage (Mississippi State University Extension). Expect roughly $48 to $71 a month more than a homeowner pays on these medians.

Why is Gulfport insurance so high?

Wind coverage dominates the premium. NerdWallet's March 2026 data shows $7,920 a year in Gulfport against $4,570 in Jackson for the same $400,000 of dwelling coverage, and the state wind pool raised coastal rates 16% on January 1, 2026.

What price makes a Gulfport or Hattiesburg rental break even?

About $130,900 in Gulfport and $141,000 in Hattiesburg at 7.40% and today's rents, roughly 39% and 36% below each median.

For another state where the sign of the cash flow turned on one input, see our Michigan update, and for markets that do pencil, the county yield map.