How much house you can actually afford right now

The national median home price is $440,600 and the average 30-year fixed rate is 6.55%, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending July 16, 2026 — the highest reading since August 2025. Neither number tells you what you can afford. The standard affordability rule caps your total housing cost, principal, interest, taxes, and insurance combined, at 28% of gross monthly income, with total debt (including the house) capped around 36%. On a $78,000 salary that's roughly $1,820 a month for housing before other debts factor in, which at today's rate buys meaningfully less home than the same budget did three years ago.

So what for you: run your actual income, not a lender's maximum preapproval number, through the calculator above. Preapproval amounts are built to the edge of what a bank will lend, not what leaves you comfortable after groceries, gas, and a bad month.

What actually goes into your monthly payment

Principal and interest is only part of the bill. Property tax, homeowners insurance, and — if your down payment is under 20% — private mortgage insurance all stack on top, and PMI alone runs $115 to $375 a month on a $300,000 loan depending on your credit score and loan-to-value ratio. The calculator above builds all of that in, which is why the "monthly total" figure is almost always higher than the number a lender leads with on a phone call.

So what for you: if PMI shows up in your estimate, it's not permanent. Once you build 20% equity, you can request cancellation rather than waiting for it to fall off automatically — see our guide on canceling PMI early for the exact threshold and paperwork.

The down payment math nobody explains clearly

Most first-time buyers assume they need 20% down to buy at all. They don't — conventional loans go as low as 3%, FHA loans as low as 3.5% — but a smaller down payment means a bigger loan, a bigger monthly payment, and PMI added on top. There's also real money on the table that gets left unclaimed: 2,679 active down payment assistance programs exist nationwide as of Q1 2026, averaging an $18,000 benefit, yet 49% of buyers who struggle to save for a down payment never even apply for one.

So what for you: toggle the down payment field above between 3%, 10%, and 20% and watch what happens to both your monthly payment and your PMI line. Then check whether a down payment assistance program in your state changes which scenario is realistic — most people who run these numbers side by side find the "right" down payment isn't the one they assumed going in.

The two levers you actually control

You can't control this week's Freddie Mac print, but you control your credit score and how many lenders you get a quote from — and both move your rate more than most buyers expect. A quarter-point difference in rate on a $350,000 loan changes your monthly payment by roughly $55 to $60, which compounds into tens of thousands of dollars over 30 years. Closing costs are the other line item buyers underestimate: typically $8,500 to $15,200 on a $400,000 home, split across lender fees, third-party fees, and prepaid escrow items.

So what for you: before you lock a rate, read what your credit score actually does to your rate and budget for closing costs separately from your down payment — treating them as one lump sum is the most common budgeting mistake we see.

The call

Frankly, if the monthly total above is uncomfortably close to your income cap, the math points toward a smaller loan, not a bigger stretch — a payment that only works in a best-case month isn't a payment that works. Run the numbers at 10%, 15%, and 20% down, check what PMI adds at each level, and compare that against what you'd pay in rent instead before you fall for a specific house. Most buyers who do this exercise honestly end up with a number that's lower than what they were preapproved for — and that's usually the right outcome, not a disappointing one.