Vermont home prices 2026: $385,000, or $423,674?

You've probably seen two different numbers for Vermont home prices this year, and both of them are technically right. One read from July put the statewide median at $385,000. A more complete read two months later put it at $423,674. Neither number is wrong — Vermont sells so few homes each month that a single month's data can swing the whole state's median hard, even when the underlying trend is closer to flat.

That volatility matters if you're timing a purchase in Burlington, weighing a rental in Rutland, or trying to figure out whether a down payment program actually closes the gap for you here. This page pulls together the numbers that hold up after a second look, and what they mean for your specific decision.

Vermont housing market snapshot

Vermont's statewide median home price is $423,674 over the three months ending June 2026, down 2.0% year over year (Redfin). That figure is itself a correction of sorts: an earlier single-month read in July had put the statewide median at $385,000, a $38,000 gap that says more about Vermont's thin transaction volume than about any real shift in the market. In a state this small, a handful of high-end closings in one month can move the median more than actual demand does.

What's driving the market isn't population growth. Vermont lost about 1,900 residents between 2024 and 2025, a 0.29% decline, as deaths outpaced births and roughly 726 more people left for other states than moved in, only partly offset by 623 international arrivals (U.S. Census Bureau, via USAFacts). Prices hold up despite a shrinking population because Act 250, the state's 56-year-old land-use law, keeps new construction scarce enough that even soft demand doesn't translate into falling prices — a different story from the growth-driven markets this site covers elsewhere.

So what for you: don't read Vermont's price stability as a sign of a booming market. It's a supply story, not a demand story, and that changes what's worth watching if you're trying to predict where prices go next — permits and zoning decisions, not population figures.

Is Vermont a buyer's or seller's market?

Statewide inventory is up 11.7% year over year, the median listing now takes about 91 days to sell, and homes are closing at an average of 96.3 cents on the dollar rather than routinely over asking — a real shift from a year earlier, when close to 20% of listings sold above list price versus 13.7% now (New England Landmark Realty, May 2026, citing Redfin and National Association of Realtors data). None of that adds up to a buyer's market: at roughly 2.9 months of supply, Vermont remains well under the 4-to-6-month range considered balanced.

So what for you: you have more room to negotiate on price and contingencies than you did a year ago, especially once a listing has been up for a few weeks, but you're still competing for a genuinely short supply of homes — don't expect the negotiating power a true buyer's market would hand you.

Can you actually afford a home in Vermont?

Take Burlington, Vermont's largest city, at its $502,000 median sale price (Redfin, three months ending June 2026). At 10% down and today's 7.03% 30-year rate (Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of September 24, 2026), principal and interest alone runs about $3,015 a month. Add Burlington's homestead property tax rate of roughly 2.38% of assessed value (about $996 a month), insurance (about $95 a month, statewide estimate), and PMI in the typical $190-to-$450 range on a loan this size, and the full payment lands around $4,389 a month.

Under the standard rule that housing shouldn't exceed 28% of gross income, that payment requires roughly $188,000 a year in household income. Vermont's actual median household income is $81,203 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020–2024 American Community Survey) — less than half of what Burlington's median home actually requires.

So what for you: the math at Burlington's median doesn't work for a median-income Vermont household under any conventional lending guideline, which means either an income well above the state median, a price well below Burlington's, or a serious look at the assistance programs covered below.

Vermont cities to watch

Burlington is the state's job center — the University of Vermont, the state's largest hospital system, and a growing tech and healthcare base — at a $502,000 median that's cooling at the edges even as the level stays high: price per square foot is down 5.4% year over year, a steeper drop than the 2.6% decline in the median itself (Redfin, June 2026).

South Burlington, the suburb next door, actually runs pricier than Burlington itself at a $546,888 median (Redfin, August 2026, down 2.6% year over year), and it's selling fast — a Redfin Compete Score of 75 out of 100 and homes typically under contract in about 29 days make it one of the more competitive submarkets in the state.

Rutland City is the affordability play: a $265,000 median (Redfin, 2026), down 7.6% year over year, less than half of Burlington's price in a smaller but still functional job market.

Stowe and Killington are vacation and short-term-rental markets, not primary-residence markets. Stowe's median has reached roughly $1.2 million, up a striking 41.2% year over year (Redfin, 2026) — a reflection of how few and how high-end its sales are, not broad appreciation. Killington is the cheaper entry point, with condos starting around $200,000 to $300,000 against $400,000-plus in Stowe (Steadily, 2026).

So what for you: Burlington and South Burlington are the markets to compare if you want year-round liquidity and job-market fundamentals; Rutland is where affordability actually shows up in the numbers; Stowe and Killington only make sense if short-term rental income, not personal use, is part of your plan.

Rent vs buy in Vermont

A 3-bedroom single-family rental in Burlington runs about $3,050 a month (Zumper, 2026), against a buy payment of roughly $4,389 a month at 10% down on Burlington's median — a gap of about $1,339 a month in renting's favor before you even count maintenance, which a landlord absorbs and a homeowner doesn't. Vermont's HB 772, in effect since July 1, 2026, also now limits landlords statewide to one rent increase per year, adding a predictability to renting here that didn't exist a year ago.

So what for you: at today's prices and rates, renting in Burlington is meaningfully cheaper month to month, and the new one-increase-per-year rule takes some of the risk out of staying a renter longer while you save toward a bigger down payment or wait for rates to move.

First-time buyers in Vermont

The Vermont Housing Finance Agency runs two down payment programs worth checking before you assume you need the full amount saved yourself. ASSIST provides up to $10,000 as a 0% deferred loan — no monthly payments, repaid only when you sell, refinance, or pay off the mortgage — for buyers who've never owned a home and hold under $20,000 in liquid assets, available with VHFA's MOVE mortgage product (VHFA.org, 2026). Separately, VHFA's First Generation Homebuyer Grant provides $15,000 that doesn't need to be repaid at all, for buyers who experienced foster care or whose parents never owned a home or lost one to foreclosure.

On the PMI side, mortgage insurance on a sub-20%-down loan cancels automatically once you reach 78% loan-to-value under federal law, and you can request cancellation yourself once you hit 80% — you don't have to wait for your lender to bring it up. Our guide to canceling PMI early walks through exactly how to track that threshold, and our guide to the down payment money most buyers never collect covers programs beyond Vermont's own.

So what for you: between ASSIST and the First Generation grant, an eligible Burlington buyer could realistically cut $10,000 to $25,000 off the cash needed to close — check eligibility before you assume the 10%-down scenario above is your only option.

Real estate investors in Vermont

Neither of Vermont's two largest cities clears positive cash flow on a standard rental purchase today. At Burlington's $502,000 median, 25% down, and 6.66% financing, PITI runs $3,502 against $3,050 in gross rent — a DSCR of 0.87 and a monthly loss of about $849 after vacancy and management (Redfin/Zumper, 2026). Rutland City comes closer to breaking even: at its $265,000 median, the same terms produce a DSCR of 0.99 and a smaller monthly loss of about $316, because Rutland's much lower entry price outweighs a property tax rate that's nearly double Burlington's.

One genuine wrinkle: Burlington is one of the few markets nationally where landlords pay marginally less property tax than homeowners (about 2.36% versus 2.38%), a quirk of how closely the town's assessments track market value — a small edge, not a path to profitability on its own. The bigger question for Vermont investors is Act 250 itself: Burlington, South Burlington, and Rutland City are all applying for a new exemption that would remove Act 250 review from their densest zones, which would weaken the supply-constraint thesis this market has run on for decades if any application clears.

So what for you: underwrite Vermont as an appreciation-and-tax-structure play, not a cash-flow play, and don't price in permanent scarcity — track whether Burlington's exemption application clears before you treat Act 250 as a fixed advantage. Our full second-pass investor breakdown has the underlying numbers, and our DSCR loan investor guide covers the financing side.