Hawaii home prices 2026: record highs, rock-bottom property tax

You've done the math on a Honolulu condo more than once, and it never survives contact with a real mortgage calculator. Oahu's single-family home median hit a record $1,262,500 in June 2026 (Honolulu Board of Realtors) — the priciest statewide market in the country — and it got there while Hawaii keeps one of the lowest effective property tax rates in the nation, around 0.27% (howtoliveinhawaii.com, 2026). Those two facts sound like they should cancel out. They don't.

This page runs the actual numbers: what a median Oahu home costs against a real Hawaii income, why the house market and condo market are behaving like two different economies right now, what a first-time buyer program can close, and what an investor loses every month at today's rates. Hawaii figures below were last checked September 27, 2026.

Hawaii housing market snapshot

Oahu's single-family home median reached a record $1,262,500 in June 2026, while the statewide condo median rose 4% year over year to $528,000 (Honolulu Board of Realtors, June 2026). Three forces underwrite both: land supply that's fixed by geography, a tourism economy that keeps a floor under rents, and a large military presence anchored around Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam that brings a steady stream of relocating buyers with housing allowances.

But "Hawaii" isn't one market. Maui's single-family median has fallen to $1,200,000, down 7.9% year over year, and its condo median dropped 13.1% to $564,950 (Maui Elite Property, September 2026 report on August 2026 data) — driven largely by short-term-rental restrictions under Bill 9 and pending Bill 88, which have gutted investor demand for resort-zoned condos. Kauai is moving the opposite way, up 16% to $1,300,000 for houses and 10% to $905,000 for condos on genuinely tight inventory (Kauai Real Estate Search, Q2 2026 data). So what for you: find out which island a "Hawaii price" headline is actually describing — the four islands are moving as much as 20 points apart, and anchoring on the wrong one throws off every other number in your plan.

Is Hawaii a buyer's or seller's market?

On Oahu, it depends what you're shopping for. Single-family homes have about 3.2 months of inventory and a 14-day median time on market — solidly seller's-market territory. Condos on the same island have roughly 7 months of inventory and a 34-day median, putting that segment on the buyer's side of the standard six-month benchmark (Hawaii Home Listings, report published August 13, 2026, covering July 2026 data). Houses are competitive, condos are not.

So what for you: competing for a house near the median means the multiple-offer, fast-close dynamics of a seller's market. Shopping the condo stock instead means real room to negotiate — asking-price reductions and seller-paid closing costs are more realistic than most buyers assume in a state this expensive.

Can you actually afford a home in Hawaii?

At the Oahu single-family median of $1,262,500, 10% down, and today's 6.95% rate (Freddie Mac PMMS, September 17, 2026), principal and interest runs about $7,521 a month. Add roughly $368 in property tax (Oahu's owner-occupied rate is $3.50 per $1,000 of assessed value, about 0.35%) and about $568 in PMI at this down payment level, and you're past $8,450 before insurance.

Insurance is where two legitimate sources disagree, so here are both: Insurance.com's 2026 ranking puts Hawaii's average homeowners premium at $738 a year ($62/month), the cheapest of any state, while MoneyGeek's 2026 estimate lands at $1,207 a year ($101/month), also calling Hawaii the most affordable state. Both can be right — the gap comes down to differing coverage assumptions and whether a hurricane rider, which Hawaii insurers sell separately rather than bundling in, is folded into the average. Split the difference at roughly $80/month and PITI plus PMI on the Oahu median lands around $8,539 a month.

Against Hawaii's median household income of $100,700 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 American Community Survey), the 28%-of-income rule says you'd need close to $366,000 a year to carry that — 3.6 times what a typical household earns. The condo median of $528,000 needs around $185,000 a year, still nearly double the median income. So what for you: this isn't a stretch that a bigger loan fixes — at the true single-family median, the math doesn't clear for a median-income household, and the condo market or a different island is where the numbers stop being theoretical.

Hawaii cities and islands to watch

Oahu is the urban core: tightest single-family inventory, record prices, and a military-tourism-logistics economy that keeps demand structural rather than speculative.

Maui is actively correcting, not just cooling — short-term-rental restrictions under Bill 9 and pending Bill 88 have pulled investor demand out of its condo market, dragging both segments down double digits while the island rebuilds around Lahaina.

Kauai is the tightest and most competitive of the four right now, with double-digit gains on houses and condos built on genuinely thin inventory rather than speculation.

The Big Island is the real affordability outlet: Hilo's single-family median sits near $380,000, roughly a third of Oahu's, on a less tourism-dependent economy that has historically appreciated more slowly. So what for you: island choice matters more here than city choice does almost anywhere else — match the island's trend and inventory to what you're actually trying to accomplish.

Rent vs buy in Hawaii

A 2-bedroom Honolulu rental averages $2,700 a month (Zumper, July 2026) against roughly $4,318 a month to buy the condo median at 10% down — a gap of about $1,618 in renting's favor. A 3-bedroom Oahu rental averages $3,500 against roughly $8,539 to buy the single-family median, a gap north of $5,000 a month.

So what for you: at this rate-and-price combination, renting isn't a placeholder while you save up — it's the financially rational choice for most households unless you're holding for a decade-plus as an appreciation play, not budgeting month to month. Run your own numbers in our rent vs buy tool before assuming buying is the default choice here.

First-time buyers in Hawaii

The state's Hale Kamaʻāina Mortgage Program, run by the Hawaii Housing Finance and Development Corporation, offers below-market fixed 30-year rates — 5.62% on government-backed loans and 5.87% on conventional, against the 6.95% national average (Freddie Mac PMMS, September 17, 2026) — with optional down payment assistance for eligible first-time buyers. More than a full point off the rate is worth well over $700 a month on a loan this size.

The City and County of Honolulu adds its own program: up to $40,000 as a 0% interest second mortgage for buyers at or below 80% of area median income, requiring just 5% down, with a $167 monthly payment on the maximum loan and a $2,000-a-year occupancy credit that forgives part of the balance the longer you stay (themortgagereports.com, May 2026). The nonprofit Hawaii HomeOwnership Center layers a further deferred closing-cost loan on top — up to $10,000, 0% interest, forgiven over 15 years.

So what for you: check eligibility for Hale Kamaʻāina and the Honolulu DPA program before assuming you need a full 20% down saved — together they can meaningfully close the affordability gap above. Once you're in, our PMI cancellation guide covers exactly when you can drop that monthly charge.

Real estate investors in Hawaii

No entry point in the state produces positive cash flow at today's rates. Condensed from our full Hawaii investor breakdown: a Honolulu condo at the $528,000 median, 25% down, runs about $1,295 a month negative after management and vacancy (DSCR 0.77); the Oahu single-family median loses roughly $3,931 a month (DSCR 0.51); and Big Island Hilo, near $380,000, is the only market that clears the 1.0 DSCR minimum on gross rent alone, yet still runs about $303 a month negative after real operating costs. Those figures were run at 6.55%; at today's 6.95% rate, every shortfall is modestly wider.

Hawaii's low property tax rate is a genuine partial offset, not a myth: Oahu's investor-class Residential A rate runs just 0.40% on the first $1 million of assessed value, and the Big Island's roughly 0.30% is lower still. It isn't enough to close a gap this size, especially once Hawaii's General Excise Tax takes 4.0% to 4.5% off gross rent before a single expense is paid — a cost with no equivalent in any other state.

So what for you: Hawaii only pencils as a decades-long appreciation and land-scarcity thesis funded by income from elsewhere, sized around carrying a real monthly loss for as long as you hold — not as cash flow, at any price point, at today's rates. See our full Hawaii investor spotlight for the submarket math, and our DSCR loan guide for how these loans get underwritten.